Re: Is the offense in serious trouble?
The Reds have an above-average offense this year. To see if this was in line with what was projected, I took a look at the ZIPS wOBA projections for each regular. Looking at the five bats who have played every day and that we are fairly confident will be back next season (Votto, BP, Bruce, Fraizer, and Cozart), this year Votto, Bruce and Frazier are almost perfectly in line with their projections. BP's recent slump has taken him to eight points under his projection while Cozart's struggles (BABIP related?) has him 20 points under his projection. I think considering their ages that all five are pretty good bets to be about the same next year as they are this year, hopefully with a bit of an uptick from Cozart.
So the question becomes can Ludwick and Mes (assuming he starts getting the majority of playing time) improve the LF and C situation enough to make up for the major downgrade that I think we all project the team to take going from Choo to Hamilton*. If Ludwick could repeat his 2012, I think the offense next year would still be in the top three or four in the NL. Really, if he can post a wOBA north of .350, that would probably do. But with Ludwick being an older guy coming off a major injury, that may be a big gamble to expect.
*Obviously Hamilton is a good bet to be a big time defensive upgrade over Choo, which will lessen the offensive difference between the two to a certain extent.
Last edited by RiverRat13; 07-08-2013 at 12:11 AM.