Originally Posted by kaldaniels
I'm torn, the run is meaningless. But what about the one iota possibility that giving up the force at 2nd will matter.
I'd just call all things even, and call them all stolen bases and assume it all evens out in the end.
If it didn't matter why would guys even bother stealing?
If the advantage of taking the given base increases you chances of winning by X %, your chance of winning by having the pitcher being concerned about the baserunner is greater than that.
The pitcher ignores the baserunner as it increases his chance of winning the game.
The runner takes the free because it increases his chance of winning.
If the runner saw that the pitcher was trying to prevent him from stealing, he'd never try, because that would decrease his chances. Much better to have the pitcher concerned.