Originally Posted by swaisuc
Can't believe people are leaving the Pirates out. They aren't as good as they've played, but they're still a .500 team with a HUGE lead in the standings. If they just play .500 ball, someone will have to go 20 games! over .500 to knock them out (around 43-23) and if that happens, that team is probably overtaking their division leader anyway.
I think the Braves are pretty set and the rest of the NLEast is out. No clue who wins the NLWest, but I'll be shocked if they send 2 also.
I think you make a good point. The Pirates have 69 games left. If they play 34 and 35 ball, they'll finsih with 90 wins. For the D-Backs to win the second wildcard, they'd need to play 41 and 26 ball. But that would still win the division unless the Dodgers also get to 91 or more wins they'd need to go 44 and 24. For the Nats to sneak in, they'd need go 43-24 while the Braves would need to go 37-30 for the East to get two teams. Those are all do-able, but pretty high level winning percentages.
So, if we assume the Reds are going to stay on course to 91 wins (or more I hope), the Pirates would need to collapse to well below .500 the rest of the way for one of the other divisions to have a decent shot get two teams in. I could see the Pirates pitching falling way off (Locke, Liriano, etc.) but it's reasonable to assume they'd still win 30 games. Multiple other teams would still need to play pretty well to beat them. It's possible, but the your post is correct about it being unlikely. I picked the Pirates to fall out of it, and I could still see it happening, but I acknowledge that it would be a pretty big change in how the season has gone for that to happen.