Re: 8/22/13 - Reds vs. D-Backs
Well the Reds are presented w/ an opportunity to do something I think we all would have taken coming off the weekend, winning 3 or 4 vs the team directly behind them for the last WC spot while at worst staying even w/ the 2 teams directly ahead of them them in the divsion chase playing teams running out the string.
After today there will be 34 games left (for the Reds, Arizon has 36 games left)
If the Reds win, they'll have a 7 game lead
Go .500 the rest of the season (17-17) the Dbacks would have to go 25-11 (.694%) to tie the Reds
Go 14-20, and the DBacks have to go 22-14 (.611%)
Go 11-23, and the DBacks have to go 19-17 (.527%, or about their current winning %)
On the flip side, if the Reds lose, they'd end the day 5 games ahead of the DBacks, meaning that if they go 13-21 down the stretch, which is still pretty bad, the DBacks would only have to win at the current clip (19-17) the rest of the way to catch the Reds.
I hope all my math is correct, but in short either way it would take a either a pretty large collapse or an extremely hot streak for the DBacks to catch the Reds. If the Reds won today, its going to take a little bit of both for the DBacks to catch the Reds.
And thusly, Dusty is going w/ his A team today, hoping to put the DBacks out of site in his review mirror. There are still quite a few games w/ St Louis & Pittsburgh, so a .500 finish going forward isn't garunteed.