Originally Posted by M2
There's lots of candidates and no set criteria. I'm curious to see what others think.
Yet, for me, it's Jacoby Ellsbury with a bullet. He's had one big year and he turns 30 in a few weeks. His legs are more valuable than his bat and some foolish team is going to pay him a king's ransom this winter. A king's ransom he will never come close to earning.
Ellsbury definitely gets his production from his legs. From his Gold-glove caliber Center Field Defense, to his League-Leading Triples and League-Leading Stolen-Bases. So, it really depends on how healthy he is.
With a College Career behind him, and his two seasons of missed time during his prime years, it's very possible that he does not have a lot of playing time on those wheels that would make "30" seem like the age that it is. He could very easily produce five very good years, but most likely will give a team 3-1/2. But, with Scott Boras his agent, there's no way he settles for five years.
Boras will target at least 7 years, and consequently, someone will overpay as you say.
He's currently second in the AL in UZR/150 in CenterField, leads the league in Triples and Stolen Bases. So, maybe he has recovered physically from his injuries.
I'd take him over Choo in a heartbeat, as I highly value Defense. But, Choo would be a better contract.