Re: Matt Harvey - torn UCL in his elbow
Verducci's work has been thoroughly debunked. There's really no rhyme or reason to it. It wasn't even a thorough study. He picked an arbitrary number and looked at cases to see if they fit his arbitrary number.
Baseball Prospectus did a thorough job earlier this year tearing his methodology apart:
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda