Originally Posted by jojo
He adjusted to become more of a ground ball pitcher before the defense got better. It didn't impact his ERA until the defense got better. I think when a pitcher's game is predicated on inducing contact, the defense behind him matters a lot. And again, there is nothing slavish about that is there?
I think it's incredibly slavish. You are looking at FIP and the components that go into it and nothing else. It's why I hate these calculations that create hypothetical results. People look at the number, do absolutely no actual thinking and ignore anything that the formula doesn't account for. So, following your logic, why was it that the year Arroyo had his best K-Rate was his worst ERA? He didn't have any worse defense in 2008 than in 2006 or 2007 (arguably better actually because Griffey was out of CF and a good defender in Patterson was playing there. By season's end, Griffey and Dunn were gone). Why didn't he have a better ERA in 2008 than 2007 when his K Rate was up over half a K per 9? Could it be that there are other things that the formula doesn't explain besides luck?