Re: Looking Ahead: 2014 Draft
Originally Posted by mth123
A couple presumptions I disagree with:
1. Trading Bailey would be enough to offset Arroyo's cost.
2. Anyone would deal for Arroyo at $13 Million+
3. The Reds could get the top end guys you are talking about for a Bailey rental
IMO, Arroyo coming back on a qualifying offer would lead to punting 2014. The rotation would be weakened if Bailey is dealt while Arroyo fills that spot. CF would need to be filled from within with players who have proven to be inadequate or not ready and the Reds would need to find another $3 or $4 Million some how probably by weakening the bullpen significantly.
I see an offer as gambling the 2014 pennant race for a sandwich pick. I wouldn't make that trade.
I wouldn't trade Bailey unless it was significantly upgrading the offense (ie SS or CF)