Originally Posted by mth123
Counting on being able to find the exact right prospect or two who can upgrade the offense for 2014 is pretty iffy. Bailey probably wouldn't fetch Profar, but even if he would, it's debatable that his .639 OPS would upgrade the offense in 2014. I'm sure every other young player would be in the same boat.
IMO, the answer to the offense is to let Arroyo walk and keep Bailey while using that $4 or $5 Million difference between Arroyo's qualifying offer and Bailey's likely arb award to secure an affordable stopgap with a track record.
I'm all for adding young talent too, but the depth area is the bullpen IMO (especially if Marshall and maybe Broxton seem likely to be back in 2014). Chapman is the guy I'd deal for that young talent. He'd free enough money to allow a mid-range free agent or two to backfill in the pen more reasonably and maybe help get a better guy to stopgap CF while filling the holes with vets to allow the team to get the best young guys available rather than taking lesser ones who may fill those needs. Keeping Arroyo and dealing Bailey doesn't free money to do that (because Arroyo is likely to make $4 or $5 million more than Bailey would). Keeping the better arm for lesser bucks while dealing Chapman gives wiggle room. Subbing Arroyo for Bailey eats it up.
I also would have no problem trading Chapman this offseason, especially for a significant offensive upgrade.
I'm not sure who has more trade value between Bailey and Chapman at this point once you factor in their contract situations, but either way, I do believe the Reds should deal one of them for a significant offensive upgrade this offseason. And in either scenario, I would make Arroyo a qualifying offer and hope that he signs elsewhere so the Reds can get an additional first round pick (bringing the convo back full circle to the thread topic).