Originally Posted by Benihana
Don't follow you. If the Reds are really considering signing Choo to a big deal as Walt said they are this week, there is more room in the budget then you are accounting for.
The status quo/raise logic is old-world John Allen/pre 2012 speak.
I estimated some numbers.
If the Reds let everyone walk and bring back their own guys with reasonable estimates for the arb guys and replace Parra, Izturis and Choo with minimum guys, that would put them at around $111 Million. If they sign Choo at say $15 Million for 2014, that would put them at $126 Million. If Arroyo comes back at a qualifying offer of $14 Million and the Reds deal off the $9 Million or so that Bailey is likely to command, that would bump it to $131 Million. Ryan Ludwick has a $4.5 Million buy-out at the end of his deal, but Cots says it's deferred, so I'm not counting it, but it will cost something either in funding or the first payment. Arroyo will begin to collect payments on his deferral next year as well ($2.5 Million per year through 2021?) but I'm not sure how much of that is funded, so it isn't in the numbers.
I just don't think they go over $120 Million (which would be over a $15 Million bump when you consider the $3 Million that Cleveland is paying). I'm doubtful that Choo comes back. It would be nice to have him the next couple of years, but a big deal beyond that doesn't really thrill me. If they could get him back, I'm guessing they would need to dump a couple guys in the $2 to $3 Million range (Hanigan, Heisey maybe Ondrusek) and sub minimum guys in their place to stay around the $120 to $125 Million range. These numbers don't consider other guys who will be on the 40 man roster and some making major league money while guys are on the DL. Probably need to add a couple million for that and there aren't any in-season acquisitions included, though we haven't really seen that. I just think the risk of Arroyo accepting and adding a $14 Million salary on top of all that and forcing a Bailey deal and looking for other spots to cut is not something the team will risk. If the Payroll can go to the $135 to $140 Million range with all the money counted, I guess there is no problem, but I'd have to see it to believe it.