Originally Posted by RedlegJake
I think you are dead wrong. He will almost certainly reject it. He has stated over and over and over again he wants a multi year deal. He has ten days fom the end of the series to accept or reject a qualifying offer. He cannot weigh other offers in that time frame at all. He almost HAS to reject the qualifying offer to negotiate with anyone else. He WILL reject the offer. You are also wrong that he won't get close to that amount in a multi year deal. Looked at the going rate for a 200 inning 4 era pitcher who throws without arm strain? Even a mid rotation type guy? He'll get three years and close to 14mil per year from someone. And what is the worse thing that happens if he accepts? You end up with a one year bridge to Stephenson as stated. 1 year. Big deal.
Not sure I agree Jake. Arroyo is 37. If the Reds make a qualifying offer, I'd guess the most he'd get is two years at $16 to $20 Million total. Even that is a pretty big commitment to a 37 y/o. If the Reds offer Arroyo, he could probably accept, take his $14 Million and try again next year and even if he settles for $6 to $8 Million on another one year deal, he'd come out ahead.
If the Reds don't offer, Arroyo's market probably expands a bit and he might do better.
From the Reds standpoint, If he accepts a qualifying offer, I think there is more downside than you're assuming as well. That's $14 Million against the budget that the Reds are not counting on. It likely means some one else has to go for budgetary reasons (which means established players making money won't be coming in return). It's likely a downgrade for the rotation in 2014 if say the team is forced to deal Bailey or even Leake to make room for Arroyo's innings and contract. They may get a couple decent pieces for down the road, but it probably weakens them for 2014. Since the Cardinals are re-tooling before our eyes, the Pirates are young and improving and the Cubs have a top farm system, 2014 may be the last best chance and I'd rather keep Bailey or Leake as opposed to Arroyo in the rotation.