Re: "You can't Neutralize Stupid." an article on Dusty Baker
The writer also makes a huge assumption based on anecdotal evidence - the antithesis of sabremetrical analysis. That is - that stupid decisions cost a team far more wins than the two or three that a smart manager can gain. Yet he offers no analysis or studies that back this up - just his gut. The fact is that the huge amount of random variable action in a baseball game may well mask most "stupid" maneuvers. Quite possible an analysis done by numbers would show little real difference. Then again - it might show a significant negative edge. But if you are such a sabre guy - SHOW US THE NUMBERS!
It is difficult to understand why statisticians commonly limit their inquiries to averages, and do not revel in more comprehensive views.
- Francis Galton, who invented correlation, discovered regression to the mean and founded eugenics.