Originally Posted by M2
That's at least a material reason. His 2012 season (particularly his HR/FB rate from that season) looks like an outlier. It reeks of Jacoby Ellsbury 2011, Brady Anderson 1996 and Davey Johnson 1973.
You may be on to something in terms of his home run rate, but I see signs of offensive excellence beyond just 2012. His road slash line in 2011 was .330/.399/.465. His overall slash line in Sept 2013 was .305/.424/.573.
Not as excellent, but still quite good, was his post all-star 2013 - .280/.371/.458.
You and I are both skeptical of defensive WAR, but I'm much closer to a believer when dealing with infielders than I am with outfielders. He's been very good to elite defensively for three of the last four years as measured by defensive WAR. And he's fun to watch play.
So if the guy is healthy I see him as more than a minor upgrade over Frazier.