Originally Posted by cincinnati chili
You may be on to something in terms of his home run rate, but I see signs of offensive excellence beyond just 2012. His road slash line in 2011 was .330/.399/.465. His overall slash line in Sept 2013 was .305/.424/.573.
Not as excellent, but still quite good, was his post all-star 2013 - .280/.371/.458.
You and I are both skeptical of defensive WAR, but I'm much closer to a believer when dealing with infielders than I am with outfielders. He's been very good to elite defensively for three of the last four years as measured by defensive WAR. And he's fun to watch play.
So if the guy is healthy I see him as more than a minor upgrade over Frazier.
The defense would be a bigger factor for me except Frazier's got a really good glove. I think it's a push as to which one is better defensively.
Like anyone else who escapes Petco, Headley could get a bump. Yet he doesn't strike me as the type of hitter who'll find a lot of power in that move. BA, OB, doubles - sure. When it comes to HR, I'd project him in 15-20 range. Obviously he can do better (though so can Frazier), but I would not expect that on a consistent basis.
Headley's upside, IMO, is better OB and more speed on the bases. He'd make a nice #2 hitter. Frazier is more of a 5-6 hitter. My take is it's a case of different rather than better. Given the risk (free agent after 2014) and the cost (both in money and talent), I wouldn't move for just Headley.
However, if the Reds could score a package deal - e.g Headley, Will Venable, Logan Forsythe - I'd give it serious thought. What the team would have to trade to get that (Frazier obviously would be part of the package) I don't know. And Jocketty really would have to lock up Headley to make the deal pay off.