Originally Posted by TRF
23 points is really nothing. you are missing the bigger picture.
I see Frazier as a sophomore slump one year removed from an .827 OPS. Can he rebound? .261 .316 .523 .839 this past September. Small sample to be sure, but he's athletic. I see a huge rebound for him back to a lower to mid .800 OPS and an increase in HR's to the mid 20's. Todd had 0 HR's in May and only 1 in July. that's clearly an aberration. his average the other four months was 4.5. I can see him hitting 26 HR's next year.
Meanwhile Sandoval keeps getting bigger. He'll be 27 next year, age prime year, but his OPS last year was over 150 points lower than two years ago. He's not getting smaller. He's not gaining speed. And he'll be worse defensively next year if the weight doesn't come off. And honestly, how much of 262 do you expect him to lose over the winter?
Panda makes ZERO sense for the Reds.
Sando will be in a contract year next season, so in theory you are going to get his best.
As for Frazier he averaged 1 hr for every 26 ab's in the minors and he's averaged 1 home run for every 24 ab's in the majors. Yeah I'd pretty much say that's what he is. Could he hit 26 hr's? Sure, but I think it's presumptuous to think that he will.
This is about projection and i won't deny that the future is blurry for Sandoval with regards to his weight, but when I look at him I see a guy who HAS OPS'd .900+ two times in his career and Frazier who's best OPS is something in the .820's. Not to mention you would expect a bump in Sandoval's numbers playing in GABP. I'm not saying he wouldn't be a risk, but I do think that risk has a much higher potential reward than the status quo.