Originally Posted by TRF
I see the Rangers alot. That rotation is thin. Darvish is an uber-stud, Holland is more than solid. After that you have a very young Martin and zip. A lot of question marks and guys returning from serious arm injuries. Bailey makes a ton of sense for them. Pitchers that switch leagues generally do better than hitters that do the same. Bailey is better than Holland, slots in as a #2 in that rotation, and makes that rotation stack up with the A's a lot better. The problem with shipping Kinsler is he has some health issues. A team getting him will demand the Rangers eat a lot of that contract, give them almost next to nothing in return or both. Plus he plays in a hitter's park and he hasn't really hit for the last two seasons. He's a plus defender, but I wouldn't trade Bailey for him. You don't get any payroll relief in that move, and it necessitates a BP trade. I'm not weakening the Reds rotation for a lateral move at 2B defensively, and a marginal offensive upgrade while adding 62M to the payroll. It doesn't make baseball or fiscal sense.
No, it has to be Profar, or there really is no fit. Plus the Rangers have another problem to deal with... Nelson Cruz. If they go after him, there is a logjam in the OF. Rios is signed through 2014 with a club option for 2015. So what to do with Leonys Martin and David Murphy? Murphy is expendable, but they love Martin's defense. And then there is Gentry.
The most likely scenario for the Rangers keeping Profar is to move either Gentry or Kinsler (probably Kinsler) to 1B. Profar goes to 2B. If they sign Cruz, very possible, then target Gentry for a far lesser player than Bailey and put him in LF.
But you start the conversation with Bailey for Profar. They might bite. Bailey is exactly what the Rangers need. He's also exactly what the Reds need.
If Profar is the bait, they are fishing for Price, who has 2 years of control, or other similar higher valued pitchers. Bailey would need to be their darling, who they would be satisfied garnering an extension window to add 3-5 years to his new contract. There are actually a few options for pitching out there that would allow them to keep Profar and acquire an equal or better pitcher than Bailey.
The Kinsler vs Phillips debate is going to favor Kinsler offensively by a lot and Phillips defensively by a lot, although Kinsler isn't bad defensively. If you're looking to make a change, Kinsler is a higher end bat that could provide more consistency than even Phillips. If Phillips is going elsewhere, I'm praying for Kinsler, especially if they're eating some of the money. Bailey for Kinsler makes some sense to me. Bailey for Profar sounds nice, but it's just the start of what the Reds would need to give up. Maybe Bailey and Mez (the odd couple).