10-30-2013, 02:15 PM   #459
Where's my chair?

Join Date: Apr 2000
Posts: 20,663

Quote:
 Originally Posted by junkhead Originally Posted by junkhead People just love the long ball and they always say their team needs a power bat. "On-base skills translate to run-scoring much more than slugging skills."
The equation for wRC+ is:

(((wOBA – lgwOBA) / wOBAScale) + (lgR/PA)) * PA

The equation for wOBA is:
wOBA = (0.69×uBB + 0.72×HBP + 0.89×1B + 1.26×2B + 1.60×3B + 2.08×HR + 0.25×SB -0.50×CS) / PA

wOBA was constructed with the weights from the run expectancy table, which is somewhat flawed logic and based on many assumptions.

So naturally, the greater OBP is, the greater wRC+ is. That doesn't necessarily prove anything.

I'm not saying OBP is bad, of course it's great. But there are far too many assumptions made in the these formulas.

1. The value of the stolen base is not calculated correctly (Run expectancy analysis is flawed)
2. They assume every at bat is the same conditions. For example. Bottom of the ninth, bases loaded. Votto at bat. It's assumed Votto will be pitched the same and have the same chance of success as any other at bat. Maybe this is true, maybe it isn't. Based on what real pitchers say, there's a chance Votto is pitched differently than if the Reds are losing 10-0 in the 5th with bases empty and Votto up.
3. Other things which are difficult to measure are not in the formula.

I'm not saying wRC+ or wOBA is useless. It's another tool to look at.
But these are not gospel truths, as they are often proclaimed to be.
We don't know the whole picture.

Even the stats sites say so:
Quote:
 To solve this problem Tom Tango created wOBA, which attempts to value each potential situation in regards to its chance of resulting in a run scored.
http://firebrandal.com/2012/02/16/sa...training-woba/
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Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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