Originally Posted by RED VAN HOT
Looks pretty good, but a couple of comments.
Francis made 11 relief appearances for Rockies last year with roughly the same results as starting. It is possible that he might be persuaded that the best way to prolong his career is in that role.
Crabbe was promoted to AAA at the end of the year and pitched well. I can't see him going back to AA. He seems like a candidate for the AAA pen which is also getting crowded.
Josh Smith is 26 and has pitched well at every level, including AA. I can't see him going back to A+ after a full, successful season at AA. Reds need to make up their mind what to do with him.
Daniel Renken pitched poorly at A+, but has done fairly well everywhere else, including a full season at AA. I see no point in sending him down.
I have heard that many successful relief pitchers are starters up to a point in the minors. I think several pitchers have reached that fork in the road.
I agree in principal with what you say. The presence of so many AAAA and ML retreads though make it conceivable that the way I have it could be the reality. Three possibilities - a) some of the afore-mentioned AAAA and ML retreads pitch their way out of the picture b) trade(s) remove one or more of the prospects from the competition c) the always ugly possibility of injury intervenes.
Also, there's the distinct possibility that Reineke, Reckling, Schmidt, Dennick, Dyer and Dennhart (as well as Wang and Francis for that matter) are not locks for any rotation. They could just as easily be in the bullpen or out of the organization come April if prospects show they're superior.
You're right though. After you get past Louisville, there are probably at least two starters at every level that are a wrung or so lower than they should be. If nothing else, Memorial Day (and soon after, Draft Day) may do a lot to remedy things