Re: Small Market
Some people may have seen this before, but here's my theory on baseball markets. There are several sizes of markets, and you can overachieve or underachieve in any of them, for awhile.
Superstation market: Yankees, Red Sox, Braves, Cubs, Mets. The Cubs have underachieved in the recent past. The Mets have some 'splainin' to do.
Major metro market: Philadelphia, Baltimore, Washington if you put a team there, Toronto. Lots of underachievers there.
Sunbelt market: Florida, Tampa Bay, Texas, Houston, Arizona, San Diego. Florida and Arizona have overachieved (or overspent). Tampa Bay has underachieved. Texas has some 'splainin' to do.
Pacific Coast market: Seattle, Oakland, San Francisco, Anaheim and Los Angeles. Overachievers are Seattle and Oakland. Los Angeles has some 'splainin' to do.
Midwest Industrial market: Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Detroit, Milwaukee. Cleveland overachieved for awhile. Detroit underachieved. Milwaukee has some 'splainin' to do.
Prairie market: Minnesota, St. Louis, Kansas City, White Sox, Colorado. St. Louis and Colorado have overachieved. The White Sox should do better than they do.
This groups the teams according to fan base and media power.
Media contracts are where the huge, exponential gaps have occurred in recent years.
The difference between 20,000 fans a night in Cincinnati and 40,000 fans a night in Yankee Stadium is real, but it's always been there. What's different is a $7 million media contract vs. a $200 million media contract.
Nielsen defines the markets instead of me, and that works against the Reds, who must cobble together pieces from the Indianapolis, Louisville, Lexington and West Virginia markets. A savvy Reds owner would work to make that happen, but it's harder work than selling the St. Louis or Houston markets. It's a tough sell to get advertisers on the western side of the Indianapolis market to think they're in the Reds market. The sprawl around St. Louis or Houston is contiguous. A dense population of TV sets. There are a lot of empty cornfields and hillsides in the Reds market.
Finally: Just because a rich team can be dumb, that doesn't mean a poor team is automatically smart.
Last edited by BCubb2003; 05-12-2004 at 01:44 AM.