I'm calling my shot! Assuming Griffey stays relatively heatly, and keeps producing at an about average rate that you'd expect from Griff these days, I expect him to hit #500 in @ 30-40 more games. The good news? 30 games from now (June 24th), the redlegs begin a 9 game homestand (Pitt, Mets, Tribe) meaning he has an excellant chance to hit #500 @ home and help w/ an attendance drive leading up to the milestone.
Note: If griffey goes on one of his seattle era homerun hitting sprees, he may just break the record on the next homestand; completely nullyfing my previously called shot.
Heard on extra innings that the reds have now put up a banner in centerfield marking down the countdown to 500, meaning we dont' have to worry about them doing something stupid & trading him away before he hits 500.