post hype sleeper
Join Date: Apr 2001
Since you guys went out on a limb, I will too.
1. Mets - I don't feel very confident about this, because the team is so old. I think Mo will disappoint, but Alomar will not. Team is deep at multiple positions and in the rotation.
2. Braves - I like M2's comment about Burkett. For the Braves to win the division, I think they'll need someone in the rotation to overachieve or for the Mets to stumble.
3. Marlins - Loria and crew's damage will not be felt this year. This is a team Dave Dombrowski built. And I wouldn't laugh at someone who picks them to win the division.
4. Expos - It's a young team with no expectations. Some talent. If Robinson keeps them loose, they'll avoid the cellar.
5. Phillies - Offensive sinkholes abound in this lineup in Glanville, Travis Lee, Marlon Anderson. Rollins is also overrated as a hitter. Burrell may not be ready to break out. Manager is hated by his team. Team overachieved last year. Bullpen is old. I like Abreu and Rolen, but I think 3rd place is the best they can hope for.
1. Cardinals - I did eeny-meeny miney mo with the Astros, but realized that a team that sends Bud Smith to the minors has a pretty deep staff. Bullpen has several guys who have closed before. I don't like the Tino Martinez signing, but they batted him 7th yesterday, so he won't do too much damage. I don't like Polanco being an everyday player, but there's more than enough offense here.
2. Astros - Will battle the Braves for the wild card. Suspect defensively up the middle. I love Berkman, but he's no center fielder. Biggio is aging. Lugo already lost his job due to poor defense, but may get it back if Everett can't hit. There's a lot to like here, but two teams can't win the division. Offensively, they're a "plus" at every position assuming Zaun and Lugo displace Ausmus and Everett. When's the last time that happened?
3. Cubs - Everything would have to break right for them to win the division. I like the Alou signing, but otherwise they seem to be picking up a lot of expensive mediocre players
4. Reds - If they stay healthy, 3rd place and 85 wins are not unreasonable. More than likely, however, Larkin and/or Griffey will miss significant time. 75-80 wins is probably a safer bet.
5. Pirates - I was going to pick them 4th, but I kept coming back to Ron Villone as the opening day starter. I really think they'll improve offensively. Kendall healthy a full season, Craig Wilson in the lineup more. Armando Rios is a guy I find underrated. The problem for them is that the Reds are going to be better too.
6. Brewers - Nobody on this team gets on base. Nobody. I don't care how good the young pitching is. It won't matter. Too many of their runs will come from solo homers.
1. Diamondbacks - Old team. But I see them trading for the spots they need, such as 3rd base. Rotation is in good shape. Maybe Durazo will actually get to play the outfield beginning in June. If teams played a balanced schedule, they'd have the worst record of the division winners
2. Rockies - They had a Pythagorean record of about .500 last year, and I think they got better. Especially in the bullpen. I think their middle infield prospects are overhyped, but recent research suggest that free swingers do well in Coors Field.
3. Padres - Buy stock in the Padres now. Kevin Towers doesn't make too many bad moves at GM. Prospects are on the way. A lot of mediocre pitching right now keeping them from the upper end of the division.
4. Giants - This Kent situtation could get really, really ugly. Even if it doesn't, Reggie Sanders will have an awful year in Pac Bell, the majors' worst hitters park for right hand hitters.
5. Dodgers - See comments earlier in thread. Bad team. Bad farm system. Evil corporate management. Bad karma. Bad Sheffield trade. They could have either gotten good players or AT LEAST inexpensive players (and spent in free agency) in return for him. Instead they got neither.
NL Wild Card - Braves or Astros... I know, it's weak for me not to pick, but it's too close to call.
MVP - Lance Berkman
Cy Young - Randy Johnson
Rookie of the Year - Morgan Ensberg
Manager of the Year - Frank Robinson... nah I don't have the guts. Bob Brenly
I'd love to see M2's prediction come true, but I'd say the odds are less than 25%
4. Devil Rays
The D'rays have some starting pitchers with upside and nothing else. The Orioles have nothing.
1. White Sox - I have the same concerns you two have about the pitching. But I have the same concerns about Joe Mays, C.C. Sabathia, and various other persons on the other two legitimate contenders. By default, I went with the team with the best offense.
2. Twins - I think defense is overrated. But the Twins are a mediocre offensive team that benefited by taking away a lot of runs with the major leagues' best defensive outfields last year. Lawton left at the deadline and they missed his OBP. Perhaps they missed his glove too. He was definitely a 'plus' glove in right field. Who's the closer? Okay, then who's the set-up man?
3. Indians - Juan Gone replaced Manny nicely. But who's going to replace Juan Gone and Alomar?
I'd be very surprised if either of these teams exceed 3rd place. Actually, I wonder what kind of odds you could get on the following bet: "Will any of the following teams finish highter than 4th in their division: Royals, Tigers, D'Rays, Orioles?" I think NO is a safe bet.
1. Seattle - James Baldwin?... WHY. Still, this team gets better with Cirillo over Bell, while the A's lose a lot with Giambi's departure.
2. A's - It took several years in the majors for Jason Giambi to become Jason Giambi. Pena can't do it in his rookie year. A healthy Justice would be a big boost, but that's a reach.
3. Rangers - Even though this is an insane asylum with overpriced pitching, I think they'd do pretty well in a lesser division. An off chance at the wild card if the A's suffer significant injuries.
4. Angels - The best last place team in the majors.
Wild Card - Red Sox
MVP - Derek Jeter
Cy Young - Derek Lowe (hey, I gotta make one crazy prediction)
Rookie of the Year - Vernon Wells
Manager of the Year - Grady Little
For predictions more informed than mine, see the teams of Experts at Baseball Prospectus
<a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/20020330nlpredictions.shtml" target="_blank">http://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/20020330nlpredictions.shtml</a>
<a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/20020331alpredictions.shtml" target="_blank">http://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/20020331alpredictions.shtml</a>
<small>[ 04-02-2002, 06:55 PM: Message edited by: cincinnati chili ]</small>
How, then, are those people of the future—who are taking steroids every day—going to look back on baseball players who used steroids? They're going to look back on them as pioneers. They're going to look back at it and say "So what?" - Bill James, Cooperstown and the 'Roids