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Without radical move to overhaul the rotation (which is not happening), 67-95
There are no particular areas of strength to any facet of this team. The rotation (which could have been nice with a healthy Williamson, a properly utilized Graves, and high-upside acquisition like a Penny or Armas Jr) will instead be one of the worst Reds rotations in history, and likely the second worst rotation in the NL.
The defense is rather dubious up the middle given Larkin's perpetual injury problems and enormous loss of range/arm strength; given Walker's inauspicious range and abilities; given the temerity with which we will have to watch Griffey make every sharp cut and every time he has to close on a ball at full extension. The defense is solid enough at 3B, RF, C... but some of that is dependent upon JuanE and LaRue hitting enough to keep themselves in the lineup/on the roster, and Boonie avoiding freak injury/illness for the first time in 3 years.
The offense has some bats but is sluggish; is a bit lefty heavy for my taste; lacks any speed to create on the basepaths; is too reliant upon injury riddled players to be deemed reliable; and counts heavily upon a youngster stepping into a role of a top flight producer to compliment Griffey (as every other player on the team could be defined as little more than a #6 type hitter).
The table setting capacities are decent IF Larkin stays healthy and Walker builds upon and duplicates his numbers as a Red last year (which he very well might if not traded or jerked around in the order). However, even the modest table setters lack any speed or basestealing abilities; IF Larkin stays hurt the top of the order goes down the drain as he will be replaced by some 320OBP type at best and Walker can't handle the duties alone; and we would be left with our only 2 proven OBP men being the guys who are supposed to knock the high OBPers in (in Griffey and Dunn) - though Casey might return to 380OBP range again.
Finally, even the ever stalwart bullpen necessary to perpetually rescue the paper tiger rotations, is no longer the class of the division. The Cardinals have much more depth, versatility, lefty reliability, and a hammer to nail the door closed at the end which we lack; and the Astros pen is superior in certain regards as well.
The offense *should* be better merely given the fact that the days of injury mandating a Selby, Sanders, Castro, Larson lineup are hopefully gone. However, it's far from a balanced, powerhouse lineup which blends OBP, power and speed. It has holes from the lack of a leadoff man to the absence of a righty power bat for protection to a lack of adept baserunning to a potential to be undermined by pivotal player's susceptibility to injury. The bench is certainly not the same type which once boasted a Hammonds (or Ochoa), Tucker, Stynes, Tauby type of depth.
All of that is somewhat superfluous as, barring injury, the offensive, defensive, and relief facets of the team should be solid enough to be a respectable 500 type team, if they had a solid starting rotation. However, what they have is the most depressing rotation to ponder in recent memory, and in the end that will put the Reds out of their misery FAR before any of their other abilities have a chance to redeem or undermine them.
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