Originally Posted by Redmachine2003
So you would take Wilson over Suppan and Williams since Wilson had pitched more innings per start and the Stats are very close.
Suppan and Williams threw more total innings and that's what I care about. Suppan's thrown more innings every year of his career. Williams has thrown more innings all but once. Both have been well above 200 IP mulitple times.
Both pitchers have also had better relative ERAs, either at or slightly above average in both cases, than Wilson every season.
So, no, I wouldn't consider Wilson in front of either one of those two guys. In fact I've been thinking Williams might wind up in a Reds uniform as the Reds nominal "ace" this season. IMO, he'd be more likely to pitch decent than Lidle was, though Williams is nothing to get excited over.
Originally Posted by princeton
devil's advocate: if Paul Wilson stays healthy for all of August, then maybe he posts a 3.45 ERA, and scratches out 200 innings.
I'm sure that the Reds FO is harboring such thoughts.
I'm sure you're right, but Wilson's entire career can be viewed as a collection of unrealized what-ifs that always land him in the exact same unappetizing spot. He can have his runs (most pitchers can), but he's only good for a QS half the time when you get to the end of a season and he breaks down when the inning load starts to mount.
My working set of assumptions, and I've never wavered on these, is that Wilson is incapable of pitching 200 IP in a season and he's never going to qualify for an ERA title with a sub-4.00 ERA.