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12-16-2004, 04:38 PM   #177
gonelong
Score Early, Score Often

Join Date: Sep 2001
Posts: 4,136
Re: Strike out = to any other out?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by BadFundamentals There are 24 different men on base "situations" possible in a given inning. (8 combinations of baserunners x 3 outs) Examples: man on first 0 outs man on first 1 out man on first 2 outs men on first and second 0 outs men on first and second 1 out etc etc....
Code:
```out 1	67.00	100
out 2	45.00	100
out 3	100.00 100
212.00  300	70.7%```
2004 MLB OBP = .330
1st out occurs 67% of the time with no chance to move runner.
2nd out therefore occurs 45% of the time with noone even on base.
3rd out fails to advance a runner 100% of the time.

Therefore at the absolute minimum, 71% of the time a player has no opportunity to advance a runner with an out. Given that walks and singles are much more likely than 2bs or 3bs, the opportunity to advance a runner happens in a very small percentage of ABs. Double plays happen often enough to effectively cancel out those relatively few times a runner is moved up.

On top of that, moving runners up doesn't actually mean they have scored. Given the few times that moving a runner up INCREASES actual scoring, in the macro view of things a K = any other out.

GL