Originally Posted by BadFundamentals
There are 24 different men on base "situations" possible in a given inning.
(8 combinations of baserunners x 3 outs)
man on first 0 outs
man on first 1 out
man on first 2 outs
men on first and second 0 outs
men on first and second 1 out
out 1 67.00 100
out 2 45.00 100
out 3 100.00 100
212.00 300 70.7%
2004 MLB OBP = .330
1st out occurs 67% of the time with no chance to move runner.
2nd out therefore occurs 45% of the time with noone even on base.
3rd out fails to advance a runner 100% of the time.
Therefore at the absolute minimum
, 71% of the time a player has no opportunity to advance a runner with an out. Given that walks and singles are much more likely than 2bs or 3bs, the opportunity to advance a runner happens in a very small percentage of ABs. Double plays happen often enough to effectively cancel out those relatively few times a runner is moved up.
On top of that, moving runners up doesn't actually mean they have scored. Given the few times that moving a runner up INCREASES actual scoring, in the macro view of things a K = any other out.