I follow your argument (at least initially):
Your arguing to start an inning that 67% of the time you'll have one out right out of the box. Leaves you only one more out before there is no such thing as a "productive out". True.
Of course the flip of that is 33% of the time or (9 innings X 162 games X .333) = 481 (call it ~450 factoring out a number for leadoff homers) or 450 times during the course of the year a leadoff batter gets on base to start inning. And since (use the Reds for simplicity) the Reds were only victims of ~125 double plays last year, once that leadoff batter is on your likely to follow that up with many more productive out opportunities.
Additionally, (of course overlap here with above but another way of looking at it) 313 of the Reds 1375 hits last year (23%) were either doubles or triples. By definition, if not with 2 outs, and two thirds of them wouldn't be, that's 200+ productive out opportunities created.
Your "Double plays happen often enough to effectively cancel out those relatively few times a runner is moved up. " I see as opinion - fair enough (But the Reds averaged far less than one DP a game last year)
Also, I differ with your "Given the few times that moving a runner up INCREASES actual scoring" comment. Maybe the Reds (who by my research set the #2 and #3 team strikeout marks in baseball history in 2003 and 2004) don't fancy and benefit much from moving runners up but other teams do and I can only hope that one day the Reds will too.
Originally Posted by gonelong
out 1 67.00 100
out 2 45.00 100
out 3 100.00 100
212.00 300 70.7%
2004 MLB OBP = .330
1st out occurs 67% of the time with no chance to move runner.
2nd out therefore occurs 45% of the time with noone even on base.
3rd out fails to advance a runner 100% of the time.
Therefore at the absolute minimum
, 71% of the time a player has no opportunity to advance a runner with an out. Given that walks and singles are much more likely than 2bs or 3bs, the opportunity to advance a runner happens in a very small percentage of ABs. Double plays happen often enough to effectively cancel out those relatively few times a runner is moved up.
On top of that, moving runners up doesn't actually mean they have scored. Given the few times that moving a runner up INCREASES actual scoring, in the macro view of things a K = any other out.