Re: Why All The Negativity?
Ok I did some quick numbers crunching using the ballpark adjustment on ESPN
I assumed that the pitchers pitched 1/2 their innings at home and adjusted their ERAs from their old team to GABP:
ERA Home Runs
Cincinnati 0.847 1.048
Philly 1.024 1.134
Anaheim 0.972 1.062
Assume 50% of innings and Homers occur at home Adjusted Adjusted
2004 ERA 2004 HR Adjusted ERA Adjusted HR
Eric Milton 4.75 43 4.339477539 41.36948854
Ramon Ortiz 4.43 16 4.145149177 15.89453861
While a 4.33 and 4.14 isn't amazing its much much better than anything else we had last year. Between Claussen, Van Popple, Acevedo and Sanchez started about 50 games last year. With ERAs - 5.9,6.0,6.1 and 7.1. Milton and Ortiz starting based on last years numbers means the Reds give up about 60 less runs.
I didn't look at the bullpen but you have to figure it will give up a lot less runs also. Get Kearns or Griffey healthy most of the year, and there could be a remarkable turnaround.