Who replaces Lidle? And why are you taking the low estimate on Ortiz when his work as a starter was far less encouraging?
Every year, during and after the season, folks identify the worst pitchers on the staff and insist the new guys who've come in will improve the mix. And every year they overestimate the quality of the new guys and underestimate the teeming reservoir of bad pitchers the Reds still have to draw upon to pitch innings for their team.
Lidle's starts will be taken over by Hudson. Its not like Lidle pitched well for the Reds - he gave up 88 earned runs in 150 innings (5.32ERA).
I took the total season ERAs for Ortiz and all the pitches (including Acevedo who did much better as releiver than starter).
Just trying to show that Ortiz and Milton are pretty big upgrades over what we started last year. And the 157 run differential isn't unsurmountable. I did not even include Jimmy Haynes stellar 4 starts giving up 16 runs in 15 innings.