Originally Posted by Ryan the Reds Fan
I say I'll take the 13-14 wins he's averaged over the last full 4 seasons. So I'll take Eric Milton. And I wasn't inventing that, it's called a hypothetical. Hey his history shows he averages 13-14 wins, I'll take that if you want to go straight stats.
Do the Reds give him the 5.85 runs of support he got from the Phillies last year?
This isn't hard. Say Milton pitches like he pitches every season and the Reds score their average amount of runs for him. That's how you perform a realistic W-L projection, not by picking a number out of the air.
His history shows he was a pretty good pitcher from 1999-2001 and not so good from 2002-2004. I sincerely doubt you're fine with the 2002-2004 model. I know I'm not. Then again, I'm just a negative, horrible, unhappy person.