Originally Posted by Ryan the Reds Fan
I say I'll take the 13-14 wins he's averaged over the last full 4 seasons. So I'll take Eric Milton. And I wasn't inventing that, it's called a hypothetical. Hey his history shows he averages 13-14 wins, I'll take that if you want to go straight stats.
And what if the Reds offense doesn't give him the luxury of the almost 6 runs per game support for his starts? My grandmother could win 14 games if you scored almost six runs every time she pitched. Take Ramon Ortiz, for example. In 2003, the Angels provided him with the 4th best run support in the AL.
You forget that the Reds dwell in the same division as Kerry Wood, Ben Sheets, Roy Oswalt, and Oliver Perez. In fact, they may be the very pitchers Milton will match up with. It's not beyond the stretch of reality that the Reds could face each of those pitchers 4 times next year. And they aren't going to be giving up the five or six runs in order to counter the four or five runs Milton will give up. If we get the average Eric Milton pitching against the average Kerry Wood, Ben Sheets, Roy Oswalt, and Oliver Perez three times each, Milton will be 0-12 in those games. And that doesn't count any of his starts against the Cardinals, who will feature Pujols and Rolen and Edmonds and Walker as HR threats.
You see 20 wins from Milton. I see a REAL possibility of him getting 15 losses just from within our own division if we get the average Eric Milton, and not some "hope for", "what if" version where Milton wins the Cy Young.