Join Date: Apr 2000
Re: Why All The Negativity?
Originally Posted by SteelSD
In 2001, Milton received 5.18 Runs per Game in support.
And yes, if Milton has a 5.00 ERA, I'll be supremely disappointed regardless of Run Support. Run Support is not a constant. It cannot be projected. It's random. If Milton posts a 5.00 ERA that means that the Reds could have plugged pretty much an schmo into the rotation for far FAR less than 8.5 million dollars while getting the same results- including recorded Wins.
Seriously, not a single sub-.500 record from a pitcher who got at least 6.00 Runs in support since 2002. Not one, no matter how badly they actually pitched. You think those Wins can be attributed to pitcher skill?
Using your logic, Randy Johnson wasn't as valuable as Derek Lowe in 2004. Not because of how they actually pitched- but because of how many Runs were scored when they were pitching. And we all know that's just not true.
Ben Sheets posted a 13-14 record. Are you telling us that Eric Milton is a preferable option to Sheets- who received 3.53 Runs per Game in support from his offense? What about Odalis Perez? Do you think that maybe his 7-6 record was a product of the Dodgers scoring an average of only 3.30 Runs per Game in his Starts despite his 3.25 ERA? Kelvim Escobar posted a record of 11-12. Why? Because he allowed 3.93 Earnies per game while his team averaged exactly 3.93 Runs Scored in games he pitched.
All of these players appear to be worse options than Milton using your "Wins are everything" reasoning.
When was the last time you saw a team make the playoffs, not because their win/loss record put them there, but because they had the top ERA in the league, not to say ERA may not get them to having the wins to put them there, but last I looked, standing were based on wins and losses. Now, come on, I know other factors get you to wins, and yes ultimately I believe wins are everything, at least they are what get you to the playoffs. I understand Milton's ERA hasn't been the best, but if he comes in and wins, I don't care what it is.
But there's not a player on that list who wasn't a geometrically better pitcher last season than Eric Milton.
The problem is that it appears you view Wins and Losses as being solely dependant on pitcher skill level.
Definitely not, there are many factors that go into wins. If I am looking at a pitchers skill level, sure I'll look at ERA, K/9, K/BB, SLG against, BAA, WHIP, and W's. But what I care about is if my team makes the playoffs, and wins are what get a team to the playoffs, so that is what I'm ultimately worried about. So if for some reason, whether it's run support or a low ERA/WHIP that gets Milton wins, I don't care, if he's not getting wins, I'm upset.
They're not. In fact, for Pitchers, Wins and Losses shouldn't even be considered performance evaluation metrics because they tell us so little about what actually happened. They're team-dependant event outcome assignments. A pitcher can't record a Win if something beyond their control doesn't perform (ie. the offense) but CAN record a win even if their performance hinders their team's chances of outscoring their opponent.
Pitcher-recorded Wins simply don't care how good or bad the Pitcher actually was. And yes, if a Pitcher posts a 5.00 ERA they're hurting their team.
All Wins are not created equal.
Edited to add: Please see my comments amongst yours above in red. When I looked at the post, they don't stick out as much as I thought they would.
Let me ask you this, if Milton goes 5-10, with a 3.25 ERA, 1.25 WHIP what will your thoughts be then?
And just to be clear Steel, I respect your opinion, just want understand it more, I appreciate you going through what you have here, I just want you to understand mine as well, I think what it comes down to here is I'm looking at ultimately I want the Reds in the playoffs, which I'm sure you do as well, and I don't care what the stats are as long as we get the wins. You are evaluating and getting on a more probability look at it than I. I'm no saber man, I admit it. But I just don't believe you can only look at stats. There are intangibles. Like why historically has Milton been given this run support? What was his run support as compared to other pitchers on the team? Could it be that players play better for some reason when he is pitching? Is he such a good team guy that consciously or subconsciously players play better for him? I know, far fetched, but I think there is more to it that just stats. I'll admit, if you look at his ERA it's not great, but his K/9 and K/BB numbers are pretty good. Let's hope Gully can get him to keep the ball down, go 23-3 with a 2.57 era, 1.15 whip and 7K's per 9. Then I think we'd all be very happy. :gac: