Originally Posted by Stormy
I'd definitely estimate him to be 6'4" 245. Last night I was watching the Redskins/Broncos game and when you see a physical freak like Sean Taylor coming up from a safety position to lay a hit on a RB, or ball hawking to intercept a pass en route to a receiver, you're like: "Holy #@#$ is that a 6'3" 235 safety, with 4.4+ speed, who just came out of nowhere and blew up that play?" WMP has that same type of preternatural size and ability, of a young prodigy whose abilities (though not polished) are sometimes larger than life. Unfortunately, sheer freakish strength, size, speed doesn't translate into guaranteed instant impact in baseball in the way it might in some other sports. However, with the right work ethic and desire to hone his plate approach, WMP has everything it takes to be a one of a kind power producer in this league.
Stewy: Again, I agree with your Jeff Kent as a ceiling comparison for Utley (and that bodes very well for the Phillies if he follows a similar path). Two things I would point out about the power disparity between Utley/WMP: Data shows that when a 20-22 year old slugger is mashing for power at this level, it's a harbinger of much more prolific power in the future (which is not always indicated when power is evinced at a later age). Secondly, as mentioned before, Utley has the ability to drive the ball, and go deep, whereas Pena has the type of power which lends itself to hitting virtually any pitch he gets ahold of into a different zip code. He has the type of distance power that is only demonstrated by a handful of players in the game at any point in time. *If* he begins to control the strikezone as he matures, that will likely put him in the company of the great sluggers in the game. So, Utley and Pena are just very different types of players, even in the power department, despite the similarity of some of their numbers.
I think Utley is going to be a solid bat for the Phils for a while though. He's going to be a nice infield bat to have at your disposal.
Ok, I was able to check out some of the Reds game tonight (had to go to my parent's house where they have that digital cable baseball package thingy), and Pena is definitely a lot bigger than 6'3" 215. That 245 estimate seems to be a lot closer. Of course, in the 2 at bats I saw, he swung at the first pitch, and the 2nd pitch respectively, grounding out both times, so I didn't get too good a look at him. But he does look like a very big kid.
And that shot by Adam Dunn was sick, and they were saying that Pena hit a ball in BP that bounced off the top of the batter's eye, so now I got a decent idea about him. I'm now convinced he has more power potential than Utley (although Utley did draw a walk tonight, thank you very much