Originally Posted by redsfan30
Yes there are alot of "ifs" in my post, but there that is what the offseason is all about. Nobody knows for sure what is going to happen. The offseason is one big giant "if."
I don't see why its difficult to accept that someone can (and would want to) assign probabilities to your IFs. We have mounds of data to determine what is likely to happen. No one knows for sure, but the data gives you a pretty good idea of what is likely to happen.
If the sun comes up tomorrow, I'll go to work.
If the world gets thumped by metors tonight, I'll stay home.
There are two IFs here, one is more likely than the other, no?
I don't know if the Reds will end up 62-100 or 100-62 or somewhere in between ... but I'd say its pretty likely they win less than 90 games this season, which more than likely leaves them out of the playoffs.
Where could my prediction go wrong? Griffey and Kearns could stay healthy all year and produce. Significant help could come from the minor leagues. One or two of the starters could have a much better year than expected. Dunn could hit .325 with 65 HRs and 150 RBI. The rest of the teams in the division could have major injuries to key players. The Reds might be close enough, late enough, to warrent a trade for a legit starting pitchers. If a few of these happen this year the Reds could be a contender, and I'll happily watch, attend, listen to most all the games, same as I would if they lose 100 games. I'll happily be wrong in my prediction. I'll flat out rejoice!
Does anybody have vegas over/unders for Reds Ws this year? Do they offer that type of action same as the NFL? Might have to put some money where my mouth is this year.