Steel- Serious question because I'm not fully aware of the Pythag theory. Is it possible that the structure of the Reds ballclub makes us better suited to beat the prediction? Like do offensive clubs that score more runs have a bigger error size? I'm trying to make this question sound clear, I hope it is.
I've heard that a strong back-end of the bullpen can help a team beat Pythagorian projections. Logically, it seems to make sense -- your SPs and swingmen can get bombed in blowout losses that decimate your run differential, but your setup men and closers can earn close wins.
Unfortunately, I've never seen any evidence to prove or disprove that theory.
BTW - my prediction is 81-81. 10 games over .500 through May, then the June Swoon hits as teams start seeing Wilson, Ortiz, and Harang for the second or third time.