Originally Posted by DoogMinAmo
Perhaps Steel it has more to do with blowout wins/losses in addition to one run wins to distort the run differential. (Or even better, one run wins with extra emphasis on those won in last at bat. Walk off wins are the sign of a team who has to scrap to win, but doesn't really "deserve" the win. I know statistically it can not directly affect Pecota, it still might be an interesting corollary.)
Dunno, man. If we think it has anything to do with a combination of one-run and blowout Win %, we might be wrong as well...
2004 Reds: 25-20 W/L One-Run, 11-35 W/L "Blowout"
2004 Yankees: 24-16 W/L One-Run, 27-28 W/L "Blowout"
BTW, I still refuse to believe that losing by five Runs is a true "Blowout" scenario, but that's what baseballreference.com uses to define it so that's what we get.
The "Blowout" record is significantly different. The Reds were horrid in games decided by 5 or more Runs but the Yankees were a virtual 50/50 proposition. That's not enough to "tilt" the Run Differential against the Yanks unless they were losing by incredible amounts (15+ Runs) when they were on the losing end of those "Blowout" losses. But they lost only two games by more than 9 Runs (11 and 22 <ouchie>). And they were just as likely to knock the crud out of the opponent as they were to lose by 9 or less.