Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals
Originally Posted by BadFundamentals
As noted in your link:
Runs created is believed to be an accurate measure of an individual's offensive contribution because, when used on whole teams, the formula normally closely approximates how many runs the team actually scores. Even the basic version of runs created usually predicts a team's run total within approximately 20 runs.2 Other, more advanced versions are even more accurate.
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Just because it is accurate on "whole teams" doesn't mean you can take it down a level and apply it to players and expect it to sustain accuracy at PLAYER level. That is my problem with it. I'm fine with it at team, game etc.. etc.. level - groups of players but not applied to just one player. There are far too many variables at player level which can go addressed or not be adequately addressed.
Yes you can take it to the player level because the team Runs Created numbers are an amalgam of the players who put up the numbers for the team.
"The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer
"The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”