Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals
Let's stay with BB and your point "a BB is always preferable to an out".....I agree.
Let's say every "non-out event" has three components:
1) extend inning, not an out component
2) possibility of becoming a run and
3) possibility of driving in a run(s)
It's easy to see how #1 will be the same for all players all through batting order. But it is ALSO EASY to see how there could be many differences in components 2 and 3. It is those differences which are very tough to deal with accurately at player level for different slots in batting order.
So many different factors impact components 2 and 3. And eventhough they may be subtle and seem minor for one at bat or one trip thru batting order when you take sum total of 4/5 trips thru batting order for season full of games they become very significant.