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Originally Posted by BadFundamentals
Let's stay with BB and your point "a BB is always preferable to an out".....I agree.
Let's say every "non-out event" has three components:
1) extend inning, not an out component
2) possibility of becoming a run and
3) possibility of driving in a run(s)
It's easy to see how #1 will be the same for all players all through batting order. But it is ALSO EASY to see how there could be many differences in components 2 and 3. It is those differences which are very tough to deal with accurately at player level for different slots in batting order.
So many different factors impact components 2 and 3. And eventhough they may be subtle and seem minor for one at bat or one trip thru batting order when you take sum total of 4/5 trips thru batting order for season full of games they become very significant.
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I agree the differences between 2 and 3 are subtle and that over a season it is significant, but I reach a different conclusion. Over the season, the player that is more likely to be a run will be more productive because it is a TEAM game, not an individual. We just have a fundamental disagreement, you think that a player's job is bring every run home that is presented to him. I think that a player's job is to bring runs home AND score runs, and the only way you do that is to take what the pitcher is giving you and do your best to get on base.