Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals
Originally Posted by paulrichjr
I have not read this entire thread so this may have been discussed already but I wonder what many of you stat guys ( who I think most of the time are correct but not always - I know that is hard for you to believe) think of Jose Guillen this year. I remember when he had his breakout year with Cincy that many of you said it wasn't real and that he would come back to earth. He would return to his average. Well he hasn't done that. How do you guys explain this. I want to make sure that you don't think I am trying to be smart about this because you guys are right a lot more than not. I am seriously wanting to know how you explain this.
Actually, I noted that I expected Guillen to settle in right around the .850 OPS mark for a few years before his bat slows down.
2004- .849 OPS
He's at the tail end of one of his little hot streaks right now. When he goes through those two-week streaks, his OPS can rise and fall by as much as 40-50 points. I expect him to settle back in right around the same range as 2004 give or take a few points.
"The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer
"The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”