Originally Posted by paulrichjr
I have not read this entire thread so this may have been discussed already but I wonder what many of you stat guys ( who I think most of the time are correct but not always - I know that is hard for you to believe) think of Jose Guillen this year. I remember when he had his breakout year with Cincy that many of you said it wasn't real and that he would come back to earth. He would return to his average. Well he hasn't done that. How do you guys explain this. I want to make sure that you don't think I am trying to be smart about this because you guys are right a lot more than not. I am seriously wanting to know how you explain this.
He's having a good year. It's very BA driven and he's only on pace to walk 33 times but if he continues to hit .315 then his OBP will be acceptable.
The thing you have to realize is that the year he was doing well for the Reds was the first year he'd ever hit like that and there was no historical data to indicate that it was anything other than an anomoly. Up until that time he had never hit above .270, so there was no reason to believe it was anything other than a mirage. History is littered with guys who hit .300 once but never walked enough to have a decent OBP.
Even knowing what we know now, I believe the Reds made the right choice in trading Guillen.