Re: Baseball America rates Reds top 10 prospects
Excellent points Steel.
I was really impressed by John Sickels going back to review how his top prospects projections panned out. BA's greatest fault is that it never audits itself. It takes no responsibility for its bad projections or investigates what caused those bad projections in the hopes of avoiding similar ones in the future.
But I came to the conclusion a number of years back that what it's doing isn't trying to determine who the actual best prospects in a system are. It's publishing the values of baseball's futures market.
What BA just told us isn't that Homer Bailey is the Reds' best prospect. It told us that he's the Reds' most valuable prospect. Guys who seem overvalued like Szymanski, Perez and Pelland probably are the prospects the Reds should be looking to put into deals this winter.
Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong
I'm witchcrafting everybody.