Originally Posted by M2
Looks like BP's got the PECOTA forecasts up.
Anyone feel like sharing the Reds' projections?
Dunn - 41 homers, .263/.393/.558. According to Vorp projections, he'll be the 24th most valuable player in the majors (including pitchers)
FeLo - 15 homers, .265/.337/.427 and 7 runs lost on defense. According to Vorp projections, he'll be the 14th most valuable shortstop
below the likes of Julio Lugo and Jose Reyes... (so basically, they're saying he's going to decline.
Harang - 11-11 with a 4.19 ERA, 196 IP
Dave Williams - 7-10 with a 4.83 ERA, 140 IP (they have him at about 12 runs less valuable than Sean Casey)
Claussen - 9-11 with a 4.69 ERA
It looks really bad for Wilson and Milton.
Edwin E - a line that looks a lot like Aaron Boone during his prime: .275/.344/.485
Austin: 459 plate appearances - .275/ .367 /.510 (I'd take that)
Griffey: 503 plate appearances, 29 homers .281 .367 .541
WilyMo: 382 plate appearances - .282/.345/.558
Freel: NOT GOOD (let's just say that Aurilia and D'Angelo Jimenez both have better lines)
The catchers: Big dropoff for Valentin, and slight one for LaRue
In general, the pitching looks bAAAAAD. The next best VORP to Harang is Todd Coffey, with a projected VORP of 11.7 runs above replacement level, and an ERA barely under 4.00.