Originally Posted by RedsDude
i have to agree with M2 on this one.
no way in hell can you pass up the chance at the next barry larkin(maybe better) to take another in a long line of arm surgery victems.
look, bailey is a very talented player, and everything looks great from teh outside. he's tall, has a good throwing motion and he throws hard, but chris gruler threw hard too.... i mean, when will this organization (and others) learn that high school pitchers rarely work out. for every kerry wood or josh beckett, there are 3-4 other guys who blow out there arms and never reach their potential. guys like wood and beckett are the exception, not the rule.
now on to nelson. this guy IS bj upton, only about 4 inches shorter. he is a true 5-tool middle infeilder: he hits for average, he hits for power, he runs as well as anyone in the draft, he can pick it at short and despite t.j. surgery, he has an absolute cannon for an arm. imo, he is as close to a shore thing as it gets as far as the baseball draft is concerned.
imo, shortstop is just as big a need as pitching. look at what we have in the minor leagues as far as middle infielders:
felipe lopez: dont make me laugh. "no socks" is NOT a major league player. he's a punk with a weak bat, laughable defense and a general lack of common sense.
rey olmedo: he's a decent little player, but he'll never be more than a juan castro type.
edwin encarnacion: he's gonna be a third baseman.
it's obvious we needed a shortstop, yet the new braintrust decided to waste another high pick on a guy who will probably blow his arm out within the next two years.
for baileys sake, i hope i'm wrong and he can buck the trend of, not only h.s. pitchers, but reds pitchers in general. but i just get the feeling, while chris nelson is playing in all-star games for the colorado rockies, homer will be sitting at home in his cowboy boots, watching the games from his couch.
Man alive, you people are writing him off before you even see him pitch. Give him a chance for Petes sake.
As far as the Gruler comparison goes, I blame that on one thing, Jim Bowden. Bowden would have let Ryan Wagner pitch last year until his arm fell off. There is already a pitch limit in place now for our younger pitchers, unlike past regimes.
What makes you so sure that Chris Nelson is going to be BJ Upton? What makes me think Homer Bailey will be a Cy Young candidate? Will BJ Upton even succeed(Since he is still in the minors)? To be honest, I dont think we will ever get a fair reading on Chris Nelson, because he will likely be wearing purple and black and playing in thin air Coors Field(unless his value drops and he is traded).
The fact is, folks, college and high school pitchers are different, yet similar. High schoolers rely more on velocity and power, instead of learning to pitch. Its when the team who falls in love with that power that they flame out. College pitchers learn to pitch in college, and are more polished, and usually make it to the major leagues because of that. But most of them are overvalued because they are a "college" and therefore a "safe" pick(see Bryan Bullington).
I wonder how many people here would have cried if we had been in the Marlins place and had taken Josh Beckett over Kyle Snyder(top collegiate pitcher taken).
If you want to see a good list of college pitchers being picked because they were safe picks, look at the 98 draft. Of the pitchers who have reached the majors(Mark Mulder, Jeff Austin, Jeff Weaver, Seth Etherton, Brad Lidge, and Kip Wells) only one strikes me as dominating(maybe two if Wells would switch teams). My point is that out of the 10 "sure thing" pitchers, only one has made a mark. Even though there were four HS arms taken, one(CC Sabathia) is still establishing himself in Cleveland.
Or if you want to judge whether or not a first round pitcher will make it(HS or College), you can use the 97 draft, where Matt Anderson and Jon Garland might be the closest things.
Now heres an interesting SS debate, the Reds drafted a SS from LSU in the first round of that same 97 draft, yet a slugging 1B from Rice went two picks later, can you guess his name?
Im sure I will never convince M2 or MWM that Bailey was a good pick, nor can they convince me that we made the wrong choice in not taking Nelson. But it also seems that while people mention us taking Chad Mottola over Derek Jeter, we seem to forget that we took a SS in 97 from LSU only to have a slugging 1B taken by the Astros two picks later.
I wish both Bailey and Nelson the best of luck on their journey to the majors, and I think we made a difficult choice in who we took, but one I think could pay dividends if handled the right way.
But until these kids play the game, you cant really make a fair distinction.