Originally Posted by princeton
exactly, and for all we know, had he gotten more exposure, he may have played even more confused than he actually did and actually had less value. I authored "challenge thy hitters" yet I have no problem with using an approach that obviously worked for WMP. It's not clear to me that someone who produced better in the majors than he did in the minors could have been handled any better.
As for Casey, the problem was giving him a LTC, not failing to get more value for him. I never would have signed him. Once the LTC was signed, he had very little value.
I don't have many qualms with how the Reds handled Pena in 2003 and 2004, but last season was just a total fiasco. He slugged .527 in the majors in over 350 PA as a 22-year-old in 2004; the team's got to respond and create an environment for him to play regularly in 2005. Moving Casey last season would have created that environment, but the Reds didn't capitalize. Sure, there's always the chance of regression for Pena, but the breakout/improvement probability outweighed the regression. They've got to roll the dice, take the chance and play Pena regularly in 2005.
All of this is an example of the short-sighted management we've seen with this club in recent seasons. The front office, at least previous regimes, believed we could compete every season, and it's just a domino effect of lousy decisions from there. I can't blame Krivsky at all for yesterday's deal; I think it's the best he could have gotten at this point for Pena. I just believe the Reds (mainly Dan O'Brien) shot themselves in the foot with Pena while we had him and capped the return Krivsky could get for him now.
I definitely agree with the Casey LTC, and I wouldn't have signed him either. But the Reds were handed a mulligan after his 2004 season for that LTC mistake, and they blew the mulligan. It just parallels the same horrible decision-making that's also prevalent when we waste millions of dollars on useless players and draft high school pitchers in the first round of the draft.
Bad teams are bad teams largely due to a conglomeration of bad decisions, and the Reds have been no different recently. Krivsky is trying to make positive deals, and I give a ton of credit to him for doing so, but the stench of O'Brien is going to linger and delay/hinder the positive contributions Krivsky does make.