Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool
See my previous post. His K/9 in April was 4.13.
His K rate was mediocre prior to the ASB. After the ASB, it was bafflingly low. I'll buy that he was tired after the ASB, but he wasn't doing very well in terms of K/9 even at the start of the season.
HUGE red flag.
I really don't think it is. He'd thrown a good number of innings in the 2nd half of 2004, it took him until May to bounce back to his prime form, but an even larger inning load caught up to him and his overall numbers were. It's hardly surprising that a movement/control pitcher like Arroyo (and what separates him from lesser pitchers in the category is that his movement is excellent) would see his K totals drop when dealing with a new level of fatigue. What he delivered in May and June is probably representative of what you can expect moving forward. He established a solid K rate in AAA over the course of multiple years and I think those concerned that his 2005 K rate will be what defines him moving forward are worrying themselves over a fluke.
Arroyo isn't going to pitch 200 major league innings for the first time in his career ever again. He's now done it. He's actually at a real good spot in terms of his career. He's been effective against MLB hitters and he's topped the 200 IP plateau. That's the point where you'd expect a pitcher to put together his best seasons. I'm not saying I expect Arroyo's best to be wonderful, but it should be solid.