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M2 · 12-31-2002, 11:59 AM

I think the mistake folks make is viewing each trade in isolation rather than evaluating the total effect of two-plus years of activity. You can parse it to death, but the end result of Bowden's moves beginning with the Gabe White-Manny Aybar swap is that the Reds have less talent in the majors AND less talent in the minors.

Compare it to his work in '97 and '98 and he falls flat on his face.

So, I agree with FCB for the most part here.

That said, there is one trade FCB listed that I'd like to vociferously disagree with - the Konerko-Cameron deal.

Since that deal Paul Konerko has a .356 OB, .499 SLG, 328 R, 104 HR, 381 RBI.

Cameron has a .361 OB, .457 SLG, 372 R, 90 HR, 339 RBI.

Now let's park adjust Cameron to match Konerko's condidtions. Konerko was .356, .499 for a .855 OPS. Cameron becomes .372, .472 for a . 844 OPS. In other words, they're pretty much the same hitter, Cameron being slightly better at getting on base, Konerko having slightly more power.

Yet Cameron will swipe you 30+ bases a year and play Gold Glove defense at a critical defensive position. If I weren't feeling lazy I'd compare Cameron to the production of the average CF and Konerko to the production of the average 1B and then you'd probably get to see the truly formidable qualitative difference between them.

But, far from being a bad move, Cameron for Konerko was a great trade. They gave up quality, but they most certainly got quality back. And the Reds would have been wise to put someone other Cameron in the Jr. deal (and they did have that option - Reese, Dawkins, Reyes).

12-31-2002, 11:59 AM	#80
M2 Posting in Dynarama Join Date: Sep 2000 Location: Boston Posts: 26,809	I think the mistake folks make is viewing each trade in isolation rather than evaluating the total effect of two-plus years of activity. You can parse it to death, but the end result of Bowden's moves beginning with the Gabe White-Manny Aybar swap is that the Reds have less talent in the majors AND less talent in the minors. Compare it to his work in '97 and '98 and he falls flat on his face. So, I agree with FCB for the most part here. That said, there is one trade FCB listed that I'd like to vociferously disagree with - the Konerko-Cameron deal. Since that deal Paul Konerko has a .356 OB, .499 SLG, 328 R, 104 HR, 381 RBI. Cameron has a .361 OB, .457 SLG, 372 R, 90 HR, 339 RBI. Now let's park adjust Cameron to match Konerko's condidtions. Konerko was .356, .499 for a .855 OPS. Cameron becomes .372, .472 for a . 844 OPS. In other words, they're pretty much the same hitter, Cameron being slightly better at getting on base, Konerko having slightly more power. Yet Cameron will swipe you 30+ bases a year and play Gold Glove defense at a critical defensive position. If I weren't feeling lazy I'd compare Cameron to the production of the average CF and Konerko to the production of the average 1B and then you'd probably get to see the truly formidable qualitative difference between them. But, far from being a bad move, Cameron for Konerko was a great trade. They gave up quality, but they most certainly got quality back. And the Reds would have been wise to put someone other Cameron in the Jr. deal (and they did have that option - Reese, Dawkins, Reyes).