Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool
My problem is with the quick dismissal of a real authority. I suspect the folks at BP know all about WMP's on-base percentage, etc., and factored those things into their opinion. Knowing that, they're still not in favor of the trade.
To simply dismiss their opinion as "overvaluing" WMP is pretty obtuse.
Well, BP also has really latched on to Pena because their PECOTA projection system actually called his 2004 breakout at a time when nobody else thought he'd amount to a hill of (rice and) beans because of his contract and awful 2003.
I'm not sure that counts as "overvaluing" on its own, but since their system really favors players who are in the majors at a young age, you could say they "overvalue" any player in Pena's age category who has both major strengths and major holes in his game.
PECOTA isn't unjustified in its love for experienced 24-year-old major leaguers. Most baseball people agree with the general perception.