Originally Posted by pedro
I think you are underestimating the boost in value that Guillen got from being a player playing to his ptential (or above it) in the midst of a pennat race.
Guillen got good value because it was a trade for immediate need in a pennant race and because he was viewed as an everyday player.
WMP OTOH, while pehaps having a higher ceiling than Guillen, still is a project and is not viewed as an everyday player by many, including his new employers. (see 3 year OPS split against RH of .740)
Good points, Pedro. You show that comparing trades must recognize the market conditions when attempting to assign fair value to a player. The time of year that a player is valued will certainly affect that.
But, one cannot then say that a player's value will always be higher if the attempt to deal is made during a pennant race because one does not know who the contenders will be (and I would not recommend making any suppositions on who might be) and if they will need your most marketable commodities to push their value up. While that was certainly an option Krivsky could have taken here and assumed the risk that WMP value would hold or continue to increase, he decided to cash in on current value, which Arroyo was arguably (not by me, but others make good points) pretty fair shakes.