Originally Posted by traderumor
No gnosis needed to make an educated guess as to the likely outcome for Homer. There are cold hard facts stacked against him. There is nothing yet to get excited about. Now, if he hits the end of a full year in Sarasota with his numbers right where they are, shows a consistent domination of hitters at this level, and comes away with a healthy arm, then he is a legit prospect based on performance, with anecdotal and scouting information to match. Right now, the anecdotal and scouting information are inconsistent with the performance.
Come on TR... you know as well as I do scouting isn't all about putting up nice statistical numbers. Its about projection too. Just becuase he hasn't put up the stat lines that you think are worthy, does not mean he doesn't have the ability to be a dominant #1 pitcher at MLB.
Yes the odds are against it. I am aware of the success rate of first round HS pitchers... not the point i want to make. The point I want to make is that I think people on here are expecting Homer to be something he's not. Sort of like Adam Dunn. Some fans just can't appreciate what they are. Homer is a work in progress. He's got some growing to do. Some learning, some adjustments to make. He's not going to flat out dominate every game, every time. Even the best pitchers have one they wish they could call a mulligan on every now and then. But he has potential. And seemingly he has a lot of it. So lets call it for what it is - a guy who may be putting it together.
Someone pointed to his secondary stats, which are extremelly telling to me.
The walk rate is down. The K rate is about the same. The k/bb ratio has, at this point, doubled. The hit per 9 is down. Granted we are still a small sample size, and enthusiasm should probably be tempered. But if he can stay at the current levels for 1/2 a season, I dont know how you can hold him down there any longer. And I dont know how you can't be excited about his status.