Re: Foul Balls - do they indicate anything?
Excellent article, Nd2, and thanks for posting. I remember reading it back several years ago when Woolner first published it, but back then I wasn't quite sure what to make of it. Now after I've researched some data on batting counts, Woolner's results make perfect sense to me.
Generally when you run up a high pitch count in any individual plate appearance, you're almost always going to find yourself in a two-strike count, especially if you foul a ton of pitches off. In my findings, slugging percentage and OPS in all counts of 0-2, 1-2 and 2-2 takes a nosedive across the board for just about every hitter. Only when a hitter works the count to a 3-2 full count are they able to reestablish themselves into a count that enables them to hit for a slugging percentage that matches or exceeds their overall slugging percentage.
Obviously, it goes without saying that when you start running up the pitch count past four or five pitches that on-base percentage goes up, just as the data indicates.
Barry Larkin - HOF, 2012
Put an end to the Lost Decade.