Originally Posted by cincyinco
What is a DOM 4 or 5 start on Shandler's scale? Perhaps I can be enlightened.
I, too, am a little perplexed. This is a new one for me as well. What is a DOM 4 or 5 start on Shandler's scale?
My biggest knock on Bailey is that Homer's ERA shows how erratic he truly is. You can argue the validity of ERA as an indicator of a pitcher's ability all you want, but a true ace will have a low ERA because he is not allowing baserunners. Homer's ERA doesn't strike me as a true ace material.
Last year, at low A, Homer's ERA was well over 4.00. At the SAME level, a 19 year old Josh Beckett had an ERA of 2.12 (in the same league Homer pitched in). This year, Homer finally has gotten his ERA down to 3.08 at High-A. Beckett, at High-A (Florida State League - same as Bailey) in 66 innings had an ERA of 1.23. Beckett then went to AA, pitched 74 more innings and posted a 1.82 ERA at AA. When Bailey starts putting up Beckett-like numbers, and can sustain them over the length of an entire season, then I'll get excited. Felix Hernandez- the Seattle phenom - had an ERA of 2.74 in 92 innings at High A (He was 19 years old). Matt Cain of the Giants had a 1.86 ERA in 73 innings at High A (He was 19-20 at the time).
To compare to current Reds pitchers, Aaron Harang had a 3.32 ERA in 157 innings in High-A. Claussen, over a two season span, pitched 108 innings at High-A and posted a 2.92 ERA. But even Elizardo Ramirez put up a 3.78 ERA in 157 innings in the FSL. Now, to be fair those three were probably 20 or 21 when they pitched at High-A, but Bailey will be turning 20 in just a couple of weeks, and I seriously doubt that on his 20th birthday, he'll suddenly turn in to Cy Young. A true ace at High A ought to have an ERA that hovers right around the 2.25 mark
Whenever I get too giddy about Homer's performances, I remind myself that even Dave Williams posted a sub-3.00 ERA and K'd 193 in A-ball.